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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
The writer’s most recent book is ‘France on Trial: the case of Marshal Pétain’
Ten days ago, I attended a colloquium in memory of Jean Zay, the minister of education in the 1930s French Popular Front government headed by the Socialist Léon Blum. Unfortunately, Zay is best remembered for his tragic end. Imprisoned by the Vichy government in 1940, he was shot just before the Liberation by their paramilitary Milice.
The mood was sombre. Participants were reeling at Emmanuel Macron’s unexpected dissolution of parliament after the European elections. This reckless decision was probably motivated by the idea that, with the French left divided, elections might benefit the Macronist centre. But within four days, the parties of the left had formed an electoral alliance, christened the New Popular Front (NFP), in homage to the legendary Blum government. Like its predecessor, the NFP is an unwieldy plethora of organisations but the two key components are the Socialist party and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Insoumise (LFI).
For three decades, the French left was dominated by the Socialist party (PS) of François Mitterrand. That dominance was eroded as the party moved away from its working-class base. The final nail in the coffin was the ineffectual presidency of François Hollande from 2012-17. Tapping into the disillusion, Mélenchon, a former PS leader, formed the LFI, inspired by the Spanish anti-austerity movement Podemos. In the presidential election of 2017, he came fourth with 20 per cent of the vote while the Socialist candidate scored 6 per cent. In 2022 he came third with 22 per cent; the Socialist candidate got 1.75 per cent.
Mélenchon, a kind of French Corbyn, is a charismatic demagogue — with a streak of authoritarianism alien to Corbyn. He is hostile towards the EU, anti-American and indulgent towards Putin’s Russia. To his credit he has defended Muslim minorities more than other French politicians. But since 2022, he has adopted increasingly strident positions. After the October 7 attack on Israel, he refused to call Hamas a terrorist organisation. Mélenchon’s brutal leadership style has alienated his own colleagues. His stock started to fall. In this year’s EU elections, the LFI polled less than the Socialists. And it was one of his party rivals who pre-empted Mélenchon by launching the idea of the NFP. Mélenchon had to go along with it.
In the first round of the elections last Sunday, the NFP came second (28 per cent) after the Rassemblement National (33 per cent). Invoking France’s hallowed — but increasingly frayed — tradition that when “Republican” values are threatened, everyone unites to defend them, the NFP has agreed that its candidates who came third will stand down if a Macronist candidate is better placed to beat the RN in round two. Previously Mélenchon had accused the Macronists of being no better than the RN.
The groups composing the Macronist centre have been more ambiguous about their stance. Macron has called for voters to reject the RN despite saying a few days earlier that the two extremes were as bad as each other. He may have changed his position, but other centrists have been less clear. One member of his government declared that the RN was a threat to the Republic and the LFI a threat to the nation.
Even where the Macronists do now stand down, it is it not certain that those who voted for them in the first round will transfer their votes to the left in the second. I spoke to a friend whom I would have expected, in a choice between the NFP and the RN, to vote for the former. She told me that if there was no Macronist to vote for, she would choose the RN on account of Mélenchon’s alleged antisemitism.
It seems impossible that the NFP will secure a majority in round two. If it did, the situation would be chaotic. It has cobbled together some common policies: abolition of Macron’s pension reforms, a rise in the minimum wage, reintroduction of the solidarity tax on wealth that Macron foolishly abolished in 2017, etc. Otherwise its leaders agree on nothing, and distrust each other. It is not even clear who would emerge as the potential prime minister. Like its famous predecessor, the NFP is essentially a negative coalition to combat the extreme right.
Whatever occurs, the RN has never been closer to power. No wonder my Paris colleagues were depressed. The original Front National founded by Marine Le Pen’s father in 1972 included former members of the Milice that assassinated Zay. The party has superficially ‘detoxified’ since but its vision of the world remains unchanged. For all those who believe in the universalist values of the French Revolution, and the equality of all French citizens regardless of their ethnic origins, these are dark and troubling times.
