The Conservatives are facing a historic defeat at the election after a bombshell new poll suggested the party could be left with just 53 MPs – and Rishi Sunak would not be among them.
Adding further misery to a raft of dire poll results for Mr Sunak, it also shows him on course to become the first sitting prime minister to lose his seat.
And the Tories could be left battling the Lib Dems to avoid third place, with Ed Davey’s party set to take 50 MPs.
The Savanta and Electoral Calculus polling analysis puts Labour on track to take 516 seats, an estimated majority of 382 – twice the size of Sir Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide – suggesting recent Tory warnings of a Labour “super-majority” are correct.
While Nigel Farage’s Reform was not predicted to win any seats, a separate mega-poll by YouGov added to Mr Sunak’s mounting woes, suggesting the successor to the Brexit Party would return five MPs to Westminster.
They include Mr Farage, who would finally become an MP at the eighth attempt.
His party would also beat Tory chair Richard Holden, in a seat he has faced accusations he ‘stitched up’ for himself.
The Tories are also on course to be wiped out in the North East and to secure just three seats in the North West.
An astonishing 14 ministers who attend cabinet are set to lose their seats including Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Mel Stride, Alex Chalk and Mark Harper.
Humiliatingly, the party would also lose constituencies formerly held by ex-PMs John Major, Theresa May, Ted Heath, Boris Johnson and David Cameron.
The poll results were published hours after a cabinet minister warned the Tories will “get it in the neck” at the election.
Welsh Secretary David TC Davies said his party “can’t hide” from polls which are “clearly pointing at a large Labour majority”, in an interview with the Sun.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said the “stark” figures were a consequence of “the almost unique set of events conspiring against the Conservative Party this election”.
These included Mr Sunak’s D-Day gaffe, when he left the commemorations early to record a TV interview, and the rise of Reform UK. But they also included more longer-term challenges including the mini-budget and Partygate, he said.
He added: “We’ve been conditioned for so long to believe the Conservative Party, as the natural party of government, will always be a major political force. But our MRP projections – in partnership with Electoral Calculus – suggests that they will be fighting with the Liberal Democrats to be the Official Opposition, with Labour on for a historic majority.”
He added that his polling firm currently rate nearly 200 seats as “too close to call, meaning just small changes could have a huge impact on the outcome of this election”.
YouGov said its tally “has the Conservatives on their lowest seat tally in the party’s almost 200-year history.”
Polling expert John Curtice told The Independent the party looked on course for its biggest defeat in more than a century.
He said: “Whether it’s going to be 53 or 108 or whatever, it is all pointing to a low figure. And if the Labour lead remains anything like it is and Reform remain as high as they are, the Tories getting to the 156 of 1906 is beginning to look more and more remote.”
YouGov predicted Labour was on course to achieve a 200-seat majority.
It found Labour would take 425 seats, with the Tories on 108, the Liberal Democrats 67, SNP 20, Reform UK five, Plaid Cymru four and the Green Party two.
Earlier, another mega-poll, by More In Common UK, found the Conservatives on course for their worst defeat in more than a century with high-profile names including Jeremy Hunt set to lose their seats.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More In Common UK, which carried out the research, said the findings showed that the Tories were in a “deep hole” and the problem was getting worse.
The poll, of more than 10,000 people, suggests the Conservatives would hold on to just 155 seats, their worst total since 1906.
The polls all used a technique called multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) to model results at constituency level.